A remarkable period of predominantly higher than average temperatures has prevailed in the UK since 1988. Using the Central England Temperature record (CET; Figure 1) which commences in 1659, the 14 year period 1989-2002 has a mean anomaly from the 1961-90 average of +0.68 C, seventy three per cent of months from 1989 to 2002 (Figure 2) have a positive anomaly from the 1961-90 average, the 1990s was the warmest decade and two years in the 1990s, 1990 & 1999 equalled the warmest year in the CET, 10.6 C in 1949. Figure 2 shows that during the 1970s and most of the 1980s, mean monthly temperatures fluctuated around the 1961-90 average but from 1989 onwards, monthly temperatures have been on average 0.68 C higher. While it is true that temperatures of recent years have not been as high as during the early to mid 1990s, deviations below the 1961-90 average in recent years have been very modest with only one month since January 1997 having a negative anomaly as great as 1 C (December 2001).

However, in the context of the warming and cooling that has occurred throughout the twentieth century, the warming of 0.68 C 1989-2002 perhaps does not merit special attention. Although it is clear that both the ten and 30 year running means are currently at historically high levels (Figure 1), greater increases occurred from 1900 to 1950 (10 yr: 0.49 C; 30 yr: 0.48 C) than from 1950 to 2002 (10 yr: 0.43; 30 yr: 0.25 C). The comparative seasonal values are shown in Table 1 and show a similar pattern of greater warming from 1900 to 1950 except for the ten year running mean in winter where the 1950-2002 warming was twice that of 1900 to 1950. Another feature of Table 1 is that summers show a warming much less than the other three seasons resulting in a warming over the century of almost 0.5 C rather than 1.0 C in the case of autumn and winter.

Table 1 Change in seasonal CET 10 & 30 year running means from 1900 to 1950 and 1950 to 2002

	Winter		Spring		Summer		Autumn
	_______	___	_______	___	_______	___	_______	___
Period	10	30	10	30	10	30	10	30
_______________	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	______
1900 to 1950*	0.44	0.53	0.75	0.58	0.26	0.34	0.67	0.58
1950 to 2002**	0.90	0.28	0.21	0.11	0.23	0.18	0.36	0.39

Total change	1.34	0.81	0.96	0.69	0.49	0.52	1.03	0.97
_______________	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	______

* running mean in 1950 minus running mean in 1900
** running mean in 2002 minus running mean in 1950

If Europe as a whole (graph) is considered rather than the more parochial central England, a similar pattern of greater temperature changes in the first half of the twentieth century than in the second half is apparent. The cooling trend from the 1950s to the mid 1980s which was apparent in central England is also apparent in Europe. Although both the five and ten year running means are at high levels, greater increases occurred from 1909 to 1950 ( 5 yr: 0.80 C; 10 yr: 0.52 C) than from 1950 to 2002 ( 5 yr: 0.57 ; 10 yr: 0.42 C). The mean annual anomaly from 1900 to 1950 is 0.11 C which is exactly equal to the mean annual anomaly from 1951-2002. Table Europe lists the ten climatological stations used to calculate the Europe anomaly .

Table Europe Ten climatological stations around Europe: graphs showing anomalies from the 1961-90 average annual temperature and annual and seasonal values of mean temperature. (Data have not been corrected for urban warming) (Data Source: Goddard Institute.)


Station	Latitude/Longitude	Period	From 1961-90 average	Data
________________________________________________________________________________ _

Valentia, Ireland.	51.9 N 10.2 W	1869 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom.	57.2 N 2.2 W	1872 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
De Bilt, Netherlands.	52.1 N 5.2 E	1706 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Helsinki, Finland.	60.3 N 25.0 E	1829 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Valladolid, Spain.	41.6 N 4.8 W	1866 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Nantes, France.	47.2 N 1.6 W	1851 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Geneva, Switzerland.	46.2 N 6.1 E	1753 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Wien, Austria.	48.2 N 16.4 E	1775 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Athens, Greece.	38.0 N 23.7 E	1858 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
Wroclaw, Poland	51.1 N 16.9 E	1792 -2002	Anomaly	Seasonal
________________________________________________________________________________ _

The purpose of this article is to contrast this story of temperature change throughout the twentieth century told by real temperature data with the dramatic if not false claims made by some organisations within the climate change industry. During a Countryfile special on Climate Change broadcast in August 2002, a representative of the UK Met Office stated "We have seen quite big changes to our climate, both globally and in the UK, particularly over the last fifty years where we have seen climate change more rapidly than it has done at least over the past thousand years...". The temperature data above show that there was in fact less warming over the last fifty years than in the previous fifty years within the UK and Europe.

Click here to learn about the North Atlantic Oscillation and how it largely explains the variations in European temperatures during the twentieth century.

CENTRAL ENGLAND AND EUROPE WARMED MORE FROM 1900 TO 1950 THAN FROM 1950 TO 2002