European Temperatures Winter 2002/2003
The European average discussed in this article is part of a long term study,
The 1990s: the warmest decade of the twentieth century?
The Table below shows that during winter 2002/2003,
temperatures were above average in western Europe and below average in eastern
Europe. Averaged over the ten stations, both December and January were slightly
above average whereas February was 1.3 C below the 1961-90 average. In Athens,
February 2003 was the coldest since 1891 with an anomaly of -3.8 C. In contrast,
temperatures in Geneva were 3.8 C above average in December 2002 which was the
warmest since 1915.
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| Winter 2002/2003 |
Mean Temperature Anomaly C
from 1961-90 average |
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| Station |
December |
January |
February |
Winter |
|
____________________________________________________________ |
| Valentia, Ireland |
+0.6 |
+0.2 |
- |
- |
| Aberdeen, Scotland, UK |
+1.8 |
+1.4 |
+0.5 |
+1.3 |
| Nantes, France |
+2.9 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
+0.5 |
| Valladolid, Spain |
+3.0 |
+0.3 |
-1.4 |
+0.6 |
| De Bilt, Netherlands |
-0.2 |
+0.4 |
-0.8 |
-0.1 |
| Geneva, Switzerland |
+3.8 |
+0.9 |
-1.8 |
+2.5 |
| Wien, Austria |
-1.3 |
+0.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.2 |
| Helsinki, Finland |
-3.9 |
-2.8 |
+1.2 |
-1.9 |
| Wroclaw, Poland |
-2.8 |
+0.9 |
-2.1 |
-1.4 |
| Athens, Greece |
-0.5 |
+3.1 |
-3.8 |
-0.5 |
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|
|
|
| Mean |
+0.3 |
+0.4 |
-1.3 |
+0.0 |
|
____________________________________________________________ |
This graph
compares the average winter temperature anomaly of
these ten Europe stations with the winter
North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) from 1900 to 2003. The main points to note are:
winter 2002/2003 was the coldest since 1995/1996 winter 2002/2003 is ranked as 32nd coldest in the 104 year period 1900-2003
the correlation between the mean winter Europe temperature anomaly and the winter NAO is very high (r = 0.662) and significant at the 0.1% level.
This graph compares the average annual temperature anomaly of
these ten Europe stations from 1900 to 2002 with NAO in the preceding winter and also shows a very strong correlation (r = 0.538) which is significant at the 0.1% level.
The regression equation is:
annual European temperature anomaly = -0.0206 + 0.0762 winter NAO
Using this equation, the predicted annual European temperature anomaly for 2003 is -0.18 C from the 1961-90 average.
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